When might Capitals' Alex Ovechkin top Wayne Gretzky's goals record?

If he fancies accomplishing the feat in a Capitals sweater, time might be running out, with only two years remaining on a five-year, $47.5M contract. It's plausible to imagine the two sides working something out beyond that if he still hasn't topped Gretzky by then, but a lot can happen in two years. 

Ovechkin must simply surpass the goals record before then to avoid that hypothetical situation. The three-time Hart Trophy Award winner has scored 50 goals or more in a year nine times, tied with Gretzky and New York Islanders Hall of Famer Mike Bossy for the most all-time. He's already the oldest player to record a 50-goal season (36 years old), but expecting it during his age-39 season is a bit of a tall ask. 

It's easy to suppose that Ovechkin will cut into Gretzky's lead before the year ends. But that's not a give, considering he's averaging the lowest goals-per-game percentage (0.33) of his 19-year career. The more likely scenario for Ovechkin is to average 25 goals over the next two years, putting him on pace to break the record toward the backend of the 2025-2026 campaign. 

Ovechkin has been remarkably healthy over his career, so injuries aren't much of a concern. However, his production might be. After a 42-goal season in 2022-2023, his numbers have dipped, reaching only 23 following back-to-back multi-goal outings with 14 games remaining. 

Furthermore, there's a question of longevity. He's proven capable of finishing on or around the 25-goal mark this season, but can he do it over the next two years? If so, he'll join a short list of NHLers to do it. Per Stathead, 11 players past the age of 39 have scored 25 or more goals in a season, with only three doing so multiple times. 

In all likelihood, Ovechkin will, one day, set the most hallowed record in hockey. However, it's still not a sure thing.