NHL best bets: Senators vs. Rangers odds, preview, prediction for Monday 4/15

Ottawa Senators

One of these days, the Senators will maximize their potential. Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle are having exceptional seasons, while Drake Batherson set career highs in goals and points. Paired up with veterans Claude Giroux and Jakob Chychrun, there’s a solid foundation in place in Canada’s capital.

Even with all that talent, Ottawa still can’t put together an efficient 5-on-5 team. This month, it’s ranked 19th in expected goals with a 47.82 xGF%, and 19th defensively with a 3.25 xGA/60.

Conversely, special teams have been a strength in the past 10 games. The Senators have scored on the power play at a 22% clip, and converted at 87.9% on the penalty kill.

I fully expect Joonas Korpisalo to take the crease tonight. Him and backup Anton Forsberg are not optimal options in net, but Korpisalo gives the Senators the best chance to win despite his .890 SV% and -15.6 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

New York Rangers

New York has one of the deeper teams in the league, and it’s led by Artemi Panarin, who’s riding a 12-game point streak. Mika Zibanejad is also on a five-game point streak, while Chris Kreider has points in four out of his last five. Vincent Trocheck is the Rangers' second-leading scorer, but he’s been quiet for the last few games.

The Rangers have been pretty efficient at 5-on-5 play, with a sixth-best 57.07 xGF% since April 1. Defensively, they’ve also held strong at a 10th-best 2.94 xGA/60.

Special teams is certainly their specialty. In the past 10 games, New York has had the second-best power play at 37.5%, and the penalty kill is also second best at 89.7%.

Igor Shesterkin had himself a lights out game Saturday, but he’s been inconsistent this season. He’s playing to a .901 SV% in his last 10 starts, but for the season has a solid 10.7 GSAx. Expect to see him in net Monday night.

Senators vs. Rangers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Believe it or not, I actually see a lot of potential for this game to go over the 6.5 total.

The Rangers have shown they can get into high-scoring bouts. They have five players with more than 20 goals, and 10 with more than 10 goals. The depth is there, and it’s scary, especially for a team like Ottawa that struggles on the defensive end and has subpar goaltending.

Don’t be surprised if the Senators chip in a few as well. While New York is one of the better 5-on-5 teams and is exceptional at the penalty kill, Shesterkin still isn’t his old self. He’s bound to let in a few pucks, and the Senators have the weapons to light the lamp on more than one occasion.

Pick: Over 6.5 (+104)